投资策略|杭州庄贤投资管理合伙企业

Major cycle and three opportunities

All the stock fluctuations that can be caused by the change in supply-demand curve fall into the logical framework of cycle investment, breaking through the traditional division of business segment from cycle or non-cycle perspective.

Opportunities for barrier mismatching Price rising caused by supply-demand tension is a supply barrier of a certain period, the cost and quality advantage brought about by technologies is a technical barrier of a long period, and the value of brand and channel brought by reputation and brand position is also a kind of barrier
Chance for value return: make arrangement for high-quality objective whose value is extremely underestimated due to factors such as market style preference or mood; A kind of earning with relatively steady risk return, and time is the biggest friend. Mean value restoration is exactly return of mean value. Mean value restoration refers to the trend where, stock price, whether higher or lower than price center (or mean value), will be very likely to return to the value center.
Change for revolutionary growth: Seek the progressive enterprise manager making great efforts for self-improvement in major-cycle field and being ready to reform and invest in scientific research.

Supply demand curve

Profit curve of traditional cyclical stocks and growth companies

Division of spheres

high-efficiency and dedicated industry coverage

Core circle

Sub-optimal circle

Outer circle

Sub-optimal circle： It is composed of 50 to 100 individual shares of industrial and agricultural portfolio with cycle properties, mainly including sub-industries such as capital construction, real estate, port cargo, and pork and chicken (sub-optimal degree of confidence)
Core circle： It is composed of 100 to 150 individual shares in the major portfolio of chemical industry, including sub-industries such as petrifaction, dyestuff, pesticides and various auxiliaries (maximum degree of confidence)
Outer circle： It is composed of 50 to 100 individual shares of metal and consumption portfolio with cycle properties, mainly including sub-industries such as securities trader and food and beverage (minimum degree of confidence)